The 2026 midterms
What is on the ballot, how the maps and rules changed, and what he did that bears on both. Not a forecast.
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The general election is on November 3, 2026. This page documents what is on the ballot, the 21 actions by Trump and his administration this archive tracks that bear on how the election is drawn, run and contested, the 17 states whose congressional maps were redrawn or nearly redrawn mid-decade, and the numbers outside organisations publish about the race.
This is not a forecast. Polls and ratings below belong to the organisations that published them. They are listed side by side and never averaged, because the spread between them is part of what a reader needs to see. Color on each action marks its legal or operational standing, the same scale as every entry: in force, blocked or reversed, partly in force, finished. It is not a judgment of the action. Last verified October 8, 2026 (4 days ago).
On the ballot
Every voting seat. The chamber stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent who caucuses with Republicans, with two seats vacant (FL-20, TX-23), per the House Clerk on October 8, 2026.
33 regularly scheduled races, 20 of them in Republican-held seats and 13 in Democratic-held seats, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio for the seats Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance left. The Senate stands at 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.
Democrats and Republicans each hold 18 of the governorships on the ballot.
Ballotpedia counts 37 Republicans and 23 Democrats in the House, and 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats in the Senate, not seeking re-election as of September 3, 2026. NPR, counting departures differently, reports 13 incumbents lost primaries and 99 seats guaranteed a different member than at the start of 2025.
What he has done that bears on the midterms
Each item is a documented action, order, lawsuit or public demand. What it means is left to the people quoted in the sources. Where an archive entry covers it in full, the entry is linked.
Maps · 6
- July 15, 2025Urges Texas to redraw its House map mid-decade
On July 7, 2025 the Justice Department wrote to Texas calling four districts unconstitutional "coalition districts"; Gov. Abbott cited the letter when he added redistricting to a special session. On July 15 Trump told reporters, "Just a very simple redrawing, we pick up five seats," and on August 5 told CNBC that Republicans were "entitled to five more seats." Texas enacted the map on August 29, 2025.
In forceIn use for 2026. A three-judge panel blocked the map 2-1 on November 18, 2025; the Supreme Court stayed that order on December 4, 2025. In a concurrence, Justice Alito called it "indisputable" that the motive was partisan advantage. The merits remain pending.
- August 29, 2025Presses Missouri for "an additional MAGA Republican"
Trump posted on August 21, 2025 that Missouri was "now IN," and on August 29, after Gov. Kehoe called a special session, that the new map would let Missouri "elect an additional MAGA Republican." The map targeted Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City seat.
Reversed / unfulfilledNot in use for November. The map was used in the primaries, but the Missouri Supreme Court placed a citizen referendum on it on the November 3 ballot, which suspends it. On September 25, 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court, without noted dissent, stayed federal-court orders that would have required the 2025 map and directed lower courts not to block the 2022 map. Voters decide the 2025 map on November 3.
- December 10, 2025Threatens Indiana senators who oppose a redraw with primaries
After Vice President Vance met Indiana leaders, Trump wrote in November 2025 that Republicans who voted against redrawing "should be PRIMARIED," and on December 10, the night before the vote, that opponents would face "a MAGA Primary." The draft map aimed at a 9-0 Republican delegation, up from 7-2.
Reversed / unfulfilledFailed. The Indiana Senate rejected the map on December 11, 2025; the existing map is used in 2026. See "Candidates & primaries" for what happened to the senators.
- February 4, 2026Administration joins the challenge to California's Prop 50 map
California voters approved Proposition 50, a map Gov. Newsom framed as a reply to Texas and that targets five more Democratic seats. The Trump administration joined the Republican lawsuit against it.
Reversed / unfulfilledChallenge failed for 2026. A three-judge panel upheld the map 2-1 in January 2026, and on February 4, 2026 the Supreme Court declined to block it, with no noted dissents.
- April 29, 2026Backs the challengers in Louisiana v. Callais; the Supreme Court rules for them
The United States argued as amicus on the side of the challengers to Louisiana's second majority-Black district. On April 29, 2026 the Court ruled 6-3 (Alito, J.) that the map was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The Court's syllabus says Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act "imposes liability only when circumstances give rise to a strong inference that intentional discrimination occurred." Justice Kagan, dissenting: "Today's decision renders Section 2 all but a dead letter."
In forceIn force. Within weeks Louisiana, Tennessee and Alabama put new maps in place for 2026, and Florida's governor cited the ruling for its new map; South Carolina's attempt failed and Georgia deferred to 2028.
- April 30, 2026Presses Tennessee and South Carolina to redraw after Callais
The day after the ruling, Trump posted that Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee had told him he would "correct the unconstitutional flaw" in the state's map; Tennessee split its Memphis-based seat and signed the map May 7. On May 11 he urged South Carolina senators to back a map targeting Rep. Jim Clyburn's district, saying he was "watching closely."
Contested / partialTennessee's map is in use for 2026. South Carolina's Senate rejected the redraw on May 12 and again on May 26, 2026.
Rules & administration · 11
- March 1, 2025Federal election-security support for states is cut
CISA ended federal funding for the Election Infrastructure ISAC, the center that shares threat information with state and local election offices, in March 2025. Congress later directed CISA to keep supporting it.
In forceIn a September 2, 2026 letter, Sen. Alex Padilla and Rep. Joe Morelle said CISA had not provided "any of the over $39.6 million" appropriated. DHS did not respond to NPR's request for comment.
- March 25, 2025Executive Order 14248 on proof of citizenship and ballot deadlines
The order directed the Election Assistance Commission to require documentary proof of citizenship on the federal registration form, conditioned federal funds on that requirement, and directed enforcement of an Election Day ballot-receipt deadline.
Reversed / unfulfilledCore provisions permanently enjoined by three federal district courts: D.D.C. (October 31, 2025 and January 30, 2026), W.D. Wash. (January 9, 2026) and D. Mass. (Chief Judge Casper, June 24, 2026, for 19 plaintiff states; the ballot-receipt provisions are enjoined only for states that count ballots arriving after Election Day). The government's appeal of the first D.D.C. ruling is pending at the D.C. Circuit.
- August 18, 2025Pledges to "get rid of" mail-in ballots and voting machines
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would "lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS" and "VOTING MACHINES," and said an executive order would follow.
Reversed / unfulfilledNo order banning mail ballots or voting machines has been signed. The order he signed on mail voting in March 2026 (below) directs a Postal Service rule instead of a ban.
- September 16, 2025Justice Department sues states for their full voter-registration lists
The Civil Rights Division requested statewide voter lists, including sensitive identifiers, and sued states that declined; by February 26, 2026 it said it had sued 29 states and D.C.
Contested / partialMostly dismissed. A University of Wisconsin Law tracker updated October 7, 2026 counts 31 suits, 26 dismissed, one settled (Oklahoma) and no ruling in the department's favor. Georgia's was dismissed September 30; the Sixth Circuit affirmed Michigan's dismissal. Several appeals and suits are pending.
- December 5, 2025Pardons Tina Peters, convicted in state court over a 2021 election-system breach
The pardon covers offenses "related to election integrity and security" from 2020 through 2021. Peters, a former Mesa County, Colorado clerk, was convicted by a state jury and sentenced in October 2024 to nine years.
No effect on state caseColorado's attorney general said a president cannot pardon a state conviction; the federal pardon does not reach it.
- January 28, 2026FBI seizes Fulton County, Georgia's 2020 ballots
Agents executing a search warrant removed 2020 ballots, tabulator tapes and voter rolls from the county elections hub. Georgia's 2020 results had been counted three times, once by hand.
In forceOn May 6, 2026 Judge J.P. Boulee let the government keep the records while calling the warrant affidavit "defective in some respects." No charges have been reported.
- February 2, 2026Says Republicans "ought to nationalize the voting"
On Dan Bongino's podcast Trump said Republicans "should take over the voting" in "15 places" and "ought to nationalize the voting." He separately posted, "There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!" On February 27 he said he was not considering a national emergency over elections.
StatementNo executive order imposing voter ID or federalizing election administration has been reported. States run the election under their own laws.
- February 11, 2026Backs the SAVE America Act: proof of citizenship to register, photo ID to vote
The House passed the SAVE America Act on February 11, 2026 as an amendment to S. 1383. Trump urged its passage publicly, including in the State of the Union.
Not enactedOn March 17, 2026 the Senate voted 51-48 to take up the House message; final passage needs 60 votes under current rules, and the bill has stalled there.
- February 17, 2026Justice Department argues mail ballots must arrive by Election Day (Watson v. RNC)
The United States filed a brief and argued on the side of the Republican National Committee, which contended federal law bars counting mail ballots that arrive after Election Day.
Reversed / unfulfilledRejected. On June 29, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that state grace periods for ballots postmarked by Election Day remain lawful.
- March 31, 2026Executive Order 14399: citizenship lists and a Postal Service mail-ballot rule
The order directs DHS to send each state a "State Citizenship List," directs the Attorney General to prioritize prosecuting officials who issue federal ballots to ineligible voters, and directs the Postal Service to write a rule on mail ballots, including that it not carry ballots for people missing from a state-supplied list. The Postal Service issued the rule August 21, 2026.
Contested / partialThe order stands; the mail-ballot rule is blocked for November. On August 24, 2026 the Supreme Court stayed an injunction against the order itself (Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson dissenting). Judge Talwani (D. Mass.) enjoined the Postal Service rule on September 4, Judge Nichols (D.D.C.) separately on September 13, and on September 14 the Supreme Court denied a stay, saying the government was unlikely to succeed on the merits; Justice Alito, joined by Justice Thomas, dissented.
- May 12, 2026Federal agents at polling places: what officials have said
In February a DHS election official told state officials "There will be no ICE presence at polling locations for this election." Asked on May 12 about sending the Guard or ICE to polls, Trump said, "I do anything necessary to make sure we have honest elections." Federal law (18 U.S.C. § 592) bars "troops or armed men" at polling places.
StatementNo deployment to polling places has been announced as of early October 2026.
Candidates & primaries · 3
- May 5, 2026Endorses challengers to the Indiana senators who blocked the map
Trump endorsed primary challengers to Republican state senators who had voted the redraw down.
ConcludedFive of the seven incumbents lost. Greg Goode and Spencer Deery survived, Deery by three votes after the Indiana Supreme Court reversed a recount ruling on September 10, 2026.
- May 19, 2026Backs challengers against three sitting Republican members of Congress
Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein against Rep. Thomas Massie (Kentucky), Rep. Julia Letlow against Sen. Bill Cassidy (Louisiana), and Ken Paxton against Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas runoff.
ConcludedAll three incumbents lost: Massie on May 19, Cassidy in his primary, and Cornyn in the runoff.
- August 5, 2026Primary endorsement record, 2026
Ballotpedia counts 315 Trump endorsements in 2026 primaries, 96% of whose candidates won, as of its August 5, 2026 update. Endorsed candidates who lost include Reps. Andy Ogles and Cory Mills and Georgia governor candidate Burt Jones.
ConcludedPrimary season is over. Endorsements in general-election races are decided November 3.
Policy tied to the election calendar · 1
- October 8, 2026Says the US will not attack Iran before the midterms
In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote that "while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect," the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
StatementThe naval blockade continues. No ceasefire is in force; see the Iran war entry for the course of the conflict.
The map: mid-decade redistricting
Congressional maps are normally redrawn once a decade, after the census. These 17 states redrew, or tried to, between the 2024 and 2026 elections. “Target” is what the map’s sponsors or a named outlet said it aims for, not a result: maps do not decide elections on their own.
- Drawn by
- Republican legislature, after the President's public push
- Target
- +5 R (map sponsors; Ballotpedia)
- Status
- In use for 2026. The Supreme Court stayed a lower-court block on December 4, 2025; the merits are pending.
- Drawn by
- Voter-approved ballot measure (Prop 50), framed as a reply to Texas
- Target
- +5 D (Ballotpedia; AP)
- Status
- In use for 2026. Upheld 2-1 by a three-judge panel; the Supreme Court declined to block it on February 4, 2026.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor and legislature, citing Callais
- Target
- +4 R (Ballotpedia, by 2024 presidential results)
- Status
- In use for 2026. A state court denied a preliminary injunction May 26, 2026 and the Florida Supreme Court declined jurisdiction June 10; a merits challenge is pending.
- Drawn by
- Redistricting commission, as required by the state constitution
- Target
- +2 R (Ballotpedia; AP)
- Status
- In use for 2026.
- Drawn by
- Republican legislature
- Target
- +1 R (Ballotpedia)
- Status
- In use for 2026, per Ballotpedia's September 2026 list of new maps.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor and legislature, after the President's April 30 post
- Target
- +1 R (splits the Memphis-based seat)
- Status
- In use for 2026, per Ballotpedia.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor and legislature, redrawn after Callais
- Target
- +1 R (Ballotpedia)
- Status
- In use for 2026, per Ballotpedia. Its House primaries were moved to November 3.
- Drawn by
- State's 2023 map, cleared by the Supreme Court after Callais
- Target
- +1 R (Ballotpedia; NBC News)
- Status
- In use for 2026. The Supreme Court lifted injunctions on May 11, 2026 and again on June 2.
- Drawn by
- Court-imposed map, from litigation filed in 2022
- Target
- +1 D (Ballotpedia; AP)
- Status
- In use for 2026. The Utah Supreme Court rejected the legislature's appeal February 20, 2026.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor and legislature, after the President's posts
- Target
- +1 R (Ballotpedia)
- Status
- Not in use for November. Suspended by a citizen referendum on the November 3 ballot; the Supreme Court on September 25, 2026 stayed federal orders that would have required it.
- Drawn by
- Democratic legislature, via a voter-approved amendment
- Target
- Up to +4 D (CNN)
- Status
- Voided. The Virginia Supreme Court struck it down on procedural grounds May 8, 2026; the U.S. Supreme Court declined to step in May 15.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor, at the President's and Vice President's urging
- Target
- +2 R (draft aimed at 9-0)
- Status
- Failed in the state Senate December 11, 2025.
- Drawn by
- Republican governor and House, with the President's urging
- Target
- +1 R (Rep. Clyburn's seat)
- Status
- Failed in the state Senate May 12 and May 26, 2026.
- Drawn by
- Republican legislative leaders
- Target
- +1 R (Rep. Davids's seat)
- Status
- Not enacted; the House speaker said in January 2026 the votes were not there.
- Drawn by
- Republican state senator
- Target
- No seat target reported
- Status
- Abandoned by January 2026.
- Drawn by
- State court order on one district (NY-11)
- Target
- No seat target reported
- Status
- Blocked for 2026. The Supreme Court stayed the redraw order March 2, 2026.
- Drawn by
- Democratic governor and legislature
- Target
- +1 D (map not enacted)
- Status
- No new map for 2026. A constitutional amendment that would allow a future redraw is on the November 3 ballot.
- Net +9 Republican seats across the nine states with new maps for 2026, measured by 2024 presidential results in the new districts. Not a forecast of November outcomes; excludes Missouri and Virginia.Ballotpedia (Sept. 28, 2026) · Nonpartisan reference
- Republicans said they could win up to 14 additional seats from new maps; Democrats said up to six. AP noted the tallies "presume past voting patterns hold." Reported before Missouri's map was suspended.Associated Press via PBS NewsHour (May 8, 2026) · Wire service, reporting each party's own claims
Measured signals
Generic congressional ballot
Which party respondents say they will vote for in their House race. Different pollsters screen likely voters differently, and the gap between them is real. Not averaged here; where an outlet publishes its own average, it is labelled as theirs.
- Democrats 52%, Republicans 40% among likely voters (D+8 among registered voters)Fielded Oct. 2-5. YouGov said its September likely-voter screen, which showed D+16, "is almost certainly an overstatement" and retired it.Economist/YouGov · October 5, 2026
- Democrats 53%, Republicans 42% among likely votersEmerson College · September 22, 2026
- Democrats 53%, Republicans 41% among registered votersNPR/PBS News/Marist · September 15, 2026
- Democrats 51.3%, Republicans 41.6%Silver Bulletin average, as reported by The Conversation · October 6, 2026
Presidential approval
Shown because midterms have historically tracked the president's standing; that is a pattern, not a rule. Each figure is the named organisation's own.
- 35% approve, 60% disapprove (adult citizens)Economist/YouGov · October 5, 2026
- 37.5% approve, 59.9% disapproveSilver Bulletin average, as reported by The Conversation · October 6, 2026
- 39% approve, 58% disapprove (likely voters)Emerson College · September 22, 2026
- 39% approve, 59% disapprove; 53% strongly disapproveNPR/PBS News/Marist · September 15, 2026
Race ratings and forecasts
Professional handicappers' published judgments, which differ in method and category names. They are their forecasts, not this archive's.
- House: 22 Toss-ups, 16 of them in Republican-held seatsCook Political Report · September 25, 2026
- Senate: 7 Toss-ups, 6 of them Republican-heldCook Political Report · October 6, 2026
- A 5-to-15-seat net House gain for DemocratsCook Political Report, as characterised by NPR · October 6, 2026
- Projects Democrats gaining 3 to 5 Senate seatsInside Elections · October 1, 2026
- Projects Democrats gaining 7 to 15 House seatsInside Elections · October 1, 2026
Special elections since January 2025
Special elections have low, unusual turnout, and in 2024 Democrats overperformed in them and still lost the national House vote. The baselines below differ and are not comparable to each other.
- Democrats ran about 13 points ahead of their 2024 presidential margins since January 2025, and 11 points in 2026 specialsThe Downballot, as reported by NPR · April 8, 2026
- Democrats flipped 13 Republican-held state legislative seats; Republicans flipped none. Average shift of 5.1 points toward Democrats against the previous legislative race.Ballotpedia · September 25, 2026
- Democrats running 13 points ahead of the 2024 presidential margin on averageThe Conversation · February 13, 2026
Key dates
- September 19, 2026Federal deadline to send absentee ballots to military and overseas voters who asked for them at least 45 days out.
- November 3, 2026Election Day. Also on Missouri's ballot: the referendum on its 2025 map. On Maryland's: an amendment allowing a future redraw. Louisiana's House primaries were moved to this date after its redraw.
- January 3, 2027The 120th Congress is sworn in.